WASDE report: Positive outlook for global wheat supplies

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) for June on Wednesday.

Projected wheat output was revised 4.5mt higher compared to the projections in the May WASDE report despite US production being revised lower as a result of the impact of the cold winter and dry weather.

Larger output from Europe and China will more than offset the lower projected US wheat output, said the USDA.

Higher projected European corn production means that the forecasted world corn supply has also been revised higher – by around 2MT.

There were also minor revisions to the forecast for soybean and soybean products production. Soybean ending stocks were revised higher by 0.7mt, while soybean meal ending stocks were revised down by 1mt.

Wheat data ​

Wheat production in India is raised 1.9mt based on the latest official government estimate, said the US agency.

EU wheat production is revised 1.4mt higher “as spring and early summer rainfall support higher yield outlooks for France, Germany, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria.”  ​

Production of that grain in China and Russia is also hiked by one million tons each “as favorable growing conditions also support higher expected yields,” ​said the US grain specialists.

World wheat consumption is also 2.9mt higher with increased feed use expected in China and the EU and greater food use projected for India. 

Corn output ​

Ukraine and Russia corn production output levels are raised 1mt and 0.5mt, respectively, on higher expected yields as “the latest trade data for both countries confirm further expansion in the use of imported hybrid seed corn.”​

EU production is raised 0.6mt with hikes for Germany and central Europe reflecting improved early season growing conditions in the region.

Serbia corn output is reduced slightly with less expected area, said the USDA.

The projected US corn yield remains at 165.3 bushels per acre as a slightly slower-than-normal mid-May planting progress is expected to be offset by very favorable early season crop and weather conditions. 

And the outlook for US feed grain supplies is virtually unchanged, said the US agency, with only small changes made to barley and oats imports and exports for 2013 to 2014.

US meat production data ​

The USDA forecast for total US meat production in 2014 shows a decline from May figures as lower beef and broiler production more than offset increased pork and turkey production.

“Beef production is lowered as the pace of steer and heifer slaughter in the second quarter is reduced. However, carcass weights are forecast slightly higher as feed prices have moderated,”​ said the USDA experts.

Pork production is forecast higher due to a combination of larger second-quarter slaughter and higher carcass weights for the year. 

Broiler production is lowered from last month as the pace of expansion remains slow. Turkey production is raised on higher second-quarter production and egg production is raised as strong table egg prices are expected to support increased production.