WASDE: Bearish for corn and soybeans, little change in wheat estimates

13-Sep-2021 - Last updated on 13-Sep-2021 at 16:36 GMT

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The September USDA WASDE report contained little in the way of dramatic changes for wheat markets, noted CRM Agri.

Canadian production was trimmed in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) by 1Mt to 23Mt while stocks were marginally increased, reflecting Statistics Canada’s recent estimates.

Australia’s production is raised 1.5 million tons to 31.5 million on continued widespread favorable conditions to date. The estimates are pretty much in line with the revised ABARES outlook, said the analysts.

“Overall, the September USDA WASDE reflected the well-known production estimates. With little on-paper changes, we expect that the premium of wheat over corn to continue, and any large swings in feed wheat will be as a result of the larger corn market,” Peter Collier, senior market advisor, CRM AgriCommodities, told FeedNavigator.

Data leak

In terms of the corn outlook, data released last week by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) point to several bearish factors for production, said the oilseed and grain market specialist.

“Following a data leak indicating an increased planted area, the USDA now estimates the harvest area for corn at 34.43Mha, up from 34.19Mha in August. Combined with higher yield estimates of 11.06t/ha, and production is now estimated at 380.93Mt, up from 374.68Mt in August.

“US beginning stocks have also been increased due to a slow end to the US export season. Overall, the tide of supply confidence in the US has turned to a more bearish tone with increasing end stock projections,” added Collier.

Hurricane Ida

Increased US soybean production by 0.96Mt to 119.05Mt was in keeping with trade expectations, found a market update from AHDB, released today.

Disruptions to US Gulf Coast exports from Hurricane Ida also contributed to some pressure on US soybean futures last week. However, power is being restored, with some terminals expecting power later this week, noted the AHDB team.

There is still uncertainty over South American crops due to potential for a second La Niña weather event, stressed those analysts.

Argentina’s Rosario Grains Exchange trimmed its 2021/22 soybean production forecast by 200Kt to 48.8Mt, they wrote. “This was due to a reduced planted area, important considering earlier dry weather. The September WASDE kept its forecast at 52.0Mt, so is something to watch.”