Feed additive market outlook: Normalization amid uncertainty

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Renewed buoyancy in amino acid and vitamin markets © Montsitj (Getty Images)

Trends mark a sharp contrast to 2023

At EuroTier, Stefan Schmidinger, chief analyst at Kemiex, described 2024 as a year of normalization for the feed additive market, despite ongoing uncertainties linked to US elections, EU anti-dumping reviews, and potential supply shocks.

This outlook contrasts sharply with the turbulence faced by global feed, agriculture, and livestock markets in 2023.

The insights were part of a market update hosted by the Swiss data intelligence firm, which convened key stakeholders from Europe, Asia, and the Americas to discuss trends in vitamins and feed additives.

According to Kemiex’s latest survey, market activity has rebounded, with 81% of respondents reporting active trading compared to last year.

Furthermore, 70% of participants reported improved or significantly better financial results compared to 2023.

Shifting challenges and opportunities

While 2023 was marked by fierce price competition and disease-related disruptions, 2024 has brought a shift in focus.

Trade barriers, regulatory hurdles, and supply chain challenges - exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and weather events - now dominate industry concerns.

Nevertheless, 72% of respondents expect moderate and stable growth, with 23% predicting strong expansion in the months ahead.

The sector’s priorities have also evolved. While efficiency and restructuring remain important, growth investments are regaining prominence, and sustainability has become a key focus, with two-thirds of respondents citing it as a significant driver.

Key market dynamics

At the event, EU anti-dumping measures for lysine and choline chloride were a major topic, with many anticipating duties on lysine imports ranging between 30-60%.

Uncertainties surrounding retrospective duties and quota management have triggered selective stockpiling and price fluctuations.

Vitamin markets are also seeing shifts. Vitamins E and A are gradually gaining activity, while Vitamin B3 producers reported higher raw material costs due to rising prices for 3-picoline, despite low-capacity utilization.

Vitamins B9, B6, and D3 are also drawing attention this week as Chinese producers firm up offers.

Overall, vitamins surged during 2024, with producers enjoying stronger profit margins in the second and third quarters, a trend expected to extend into 2025.

Key feed additive price trends
Trends in key amino acid and vitamin prices over past six months.

Positive trends in agriculture

Despite broader economic moderation, Kemiex forecasts steady growth for the agricultural sector.

EU production of beef, poultry, and swine is up 1-3% in 2024, driven by robust slaughtering and exports, though pork demand is lagging due to reduced Chinese imports, according to its data.

Globally, Kemiex forecasts that agricultural products like meat, eggs, fish, and milk will grow at an annual rate of 0.5-1.8% through 2033.