Torrential rains threaten Rio Grande do Sul soybean harvest

The soybean harvest outlook in Rio Grande do Sul, once on track to become Brazil's second-largest producer after Mato Grosso state, is now rapidly declining due to torrential rains that inundated fields. The downpours submerged entire cities and farms in the southern state.

The area has been plagued by floods and landslides since April 29, with further rain in the forecast, posing a threat to approximately 30% of soybeans that remain unharvested. According to Conab, with the state expected to harvest 21.9 million metric tons overall, roughly 7 million metric tons of crops are now at risk, as reported by the CRM Agri team.

Meanwhile, Argentina is experiencing drier conditions, which are curtailing expectations for winter wheat sowings but aiding progress in soybean and corn harvests, according to a report from those UK analysts. Central Brazil is also enjoying clear skies, sparking discussions of a potential early start to the region’s dry season, which could have implications for the important safrinha corn crop, they noted.

Dryness concerns in Russia ​

Regarding wheat, changes in the outlook for southern Russia are proving influential in the market. Dryness concerns have arisen after March and April rainfall levels reached a fraction of the average, leading to marked volatility.

As for corn, weather in the US is gaining attention, particularly in determining the pace of sowings. While settled conditions initially facilitated a rapid start to corn and soybean seedings, a shift towards wetter weather across major growing regions is expected to slow fieldwork, according to the grain and oilseeds market outlook.

Influential market report  ​

All eyes will be on this Friday’s WASDE report, with the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) set to unveil its first full global crop forecasts for the season.