Feed additive supply and demand trends: Is market recovery in 2023 still likely?
Looking at trends in the amino acid market - namely methionine, lysine, threonine, and tryptophan – the data provider noted those products have seen price upticks in recent weeks, but valine has found its price bottoming out at around €4/kg (US$4.21/kg) in Europe.
Conversely, vitamin markets remained under sustained pressure, primarily driven by the weak performance of vitamin B5, found Kemiex.
“Calcium pantothenate prices fell from around €15/kg in June to below €10/kg on average currently. Vitamin B1 prices are stable to higher based on reduced offers of major producers, to be confirmed over the coming trading sessions, while most other vitamins were traded slightly weaker or stable.”
On the regulatory side, it has been quiet of late; there has been little in the way of new marketing authorizations for feed and novel food additives in Europe, according to the Swiss procurement and information platform.
Market fundamentals
In terms of exports from China, Kemiex sees lysine and threonine volumes slowly returning to levels seen in 2H 2021 and 1H 2022, right before the sector experienced an unprecedented downturn in demand.
“Having talked to dozens of market participants worldwide, there is still this elephant in the room concerning supply and demand fundamentals [and the outlook for market recovery],” said Stefan Schmidinger, head of market and supply chain research at Kemiex. “Some companies are adapting well to the new macroeconomic environment, adapting costs and achieving efficiency, while others are suffering from lower market activity, costs of inventories, or changing customer behavior.”
A few months back there was a raft of profit warnings and new financial forecasts by multiple animal nutrition and chemical companies. dsm-firmenich's accelerated restructuring, which included production stops, asset reviews, and organizational restructurings, surprised markets, and other companies followed suit.
Companies indicated in July that they believed volumes and prices had reached their lowest point, but they were still cautious about whether there will be market recovery in 2023.
Survey
In order to better take the temperature of the feed, food, and pharma additives market, Kemiex is conducting a survey of industry professionals.
A summary of the results will be available to participants and via FeedNavigator in the coming weeks.
