“The 2019/20 world wheat, corn and soybeans ending stocks are well above expectations,” Benjamin Bodart, analyst CRM Agri, told FeedNavigator on Friday (May 10).
In terms of wheat, 2019/20 world ending stocks are 293MMT, a record, 18MMT up on last year and some 15.6MMT above expectations, he said.
The 2019/20 Russia wheat crop was pegged at a conservative 77MMT, yet a record for this time of year and an increase on the 71.7MMT in 2018/19, said the analyst.
“The Ukrainian wheat crop is seen at a record 29MMT, slightly above our estimate but it confirmed a very good potential.”
The wheat production of the top eight exporters is set to increase by more than 34MMT to more than 402MMT, just 2.6MMT below the 2016/17 record of 404.9MMT.
“As a result, the world wheat stock to use ratio is forecast at 38.8%, a multi-decade high whilst for the top eight exporters, and the stock to use ratio is seen at 28.2%, up from 25.6% last year.”
In terms of corn, both world production (1,133MMT) and consumption (1,145MMT) are seen at record levels but the latter is forecast above production for a third consecutive campaign which has not happened in 15 years, said Bodart.
As a result, he said 2019/20 world ending stocks were pegged at 314.7MMT, still well above the 304.7MMT expected but lower than the 325.9MMT of last year.
However, the USDA kept unchanged both its 2019 US corn acreage and yield projection from its 2019 Prospective Plantings, released at end of March, despite the recent flooding across the Midwest which have resulted in significant planting delays, said the analyst.
As regards soybeans, the world will remain well supplied in 2019/20 with stocks seen flat at around 113.1MMT compared to 113.2MMT last year and 109.6MMT expected by the trade, despite a near 11MMT reduction in the 2019 US soybean production, which is mostly due to a 4.3% decline in the planted area, he said.
The US planted area could still be revised higher due to a reduction in corn, according to Bodart.
The combined 2019 Brazilian and Argentine soy crop is seen at a colossal 176MMT, which is 3MMT more than 2018/19 while the 87MMT Chinese imports could still be overestimated because of the African Swine Fever (ASF) virus that continues to spread rapidly across the country, he said.