Analysts to stay ‘neutral to bearish’ on soybean markets going into 2022

By Jane Byrne

- Last updated on GMT

© GettyImages/PashaIgnatov
© GettyImages/PashaIgnatov

Related tags soybean crush data NOPA Rapeseed Canola

Soybean prices have found strong support this week, buoyed by better than forecast soybean crush data from the based US National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), finds the latest CRM Agri oilseeds market outlook.

There are preliminary estimates of a large Brazilian crop and increased US plantings, with much of the conversation around soybeans continuing to focus on the impact that higher fertilizer prices will have on global farmers planting intentions for soybeans. Soybean cultivation requires fewer inputs than the more fertilizer intensive corn.

“US farmers are currently making planting decisions for the spring and it is expected that a shift to soybeans could be seen, particularly if fertilizer prices remain high, which for ammonium and nitrogen remains likely. High gas prices are expected to be a feature of this market as the cold winter months take effect and demand increases.”

Looking to South America, conditions in Brazil remain constructive for plantings with 78% of the area planted versus an average of 67%, noted the UK-based analysts.

“Although weather conditions have so far been good, La Niña still remains a potential risk – dry conditions have already begun to take hold in the south of the country and producers are aware of the severe impact of this weather phenomenon following the impacts seen in recent seasons.

“Despite these risks, global soybean markets look set to be satisfied moving into 2022. Without significant weather issues, we continue to maintain a neutral to bearish opinion on soybean markets.”

Bullish fundamentals for rapeseed

Rapeseed stocks remain very tight throughout Europe and beyond, following the severe impact of the Canadian canola crop due to this season’s drought.

Major exporter stocks are at record tightness, a fact which is unlikely to change anytime soon in the face of such strong demand, said the CRM Agri team.

Rapeseed fundamentals remain bullish in the short-term, they added.

Looking ahead to harvest 2022, there are signs of a production recovery, with the current level of prices have prompted an increase in area across Europe, and Canadian and Australian farmers are likely to follow suit, according to the analysts.

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