Oilseeds market: AHDB highlights points to watch in the weeks ahead

By Jane Byrne contact

- Last updated on GMT

In the weeks ahead trade disputes, currency, weather and conditions of crops in Europe and South America will likely be key drivers behind oilseed markets, said the UK’s Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) in a report yesterday [January 3].

It noted points to watch​ over the coming weeks for the global oilseeds market. 

South American weather​ 

The Brazilian soybean crop suffered a setback in December due to dry weather. Early planted soybean crops developed faster than normal, due to hot temperatures, as such rainfall is unlikely to help these crops by a significant margin, commented Aidan Wright, analyst with AHDB Market Intelligence. 

“Later planted crops which are not as far along in their development are likely to benefit more from rainfall, which will mitigate some of the impacts from the drought. In contrast, despite extreme weather early in the cropping cycle, the Argentinian crop appears to be faring well at this stage,”​ he said. 

According to the last report from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, released December 27, some 83.3% of the soybean crop had been planted and moisture levels ranged from adequate to ideal. 

US-China trade relations

In terms of the US and China tariff tiff, the progress between the two countries in resolving the dispute will remain a key factor, said Wright. 

A US trade delegation is due to head to Beijing on 7 January, he said. 

“A break in the dispute did mean that exports of US soybeans to China resumed late last year. However, the ongoing US federal shutdown has meant that the volumes purchased by Chinese buyers after December 13 remain unknown.” 

Rapeseed crop conditions

As regards, rapeseed crop conditions, the analyst said no new issues have emerged for the EU rapeseed crop.

“However, given reductions in rapeseed areas as a result of dry planting conditions, weather in Europe will remain a watch point moving forward.”

Conditions for rapeseed crops in the Ukraine were reportedly fair to good as at 20 December, according to UkrAgroConsult. 

Currency

Currency volatility, particularly in relation to Brexit, was a significant factor in UK pricing last year. It will likely remain a driver behind price movements until a clearer picture emerges, added Wright.

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