The IGC’s latest grain market review (GMR) also noted that wheat stocks could reach a record level and, after dropping to their smallest in six years, inventories of barley are expected to post some recovery.
“Globally, the wheat market remains well supplied with conditions looking good for wheat crops across the globe,” said the UK’s Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) in a comment on the IGC report.
Overall, on the grains side, the IGC predicted that world total production in 2019/20 will expand by 1% year on year, to 2,159m tons.
It said this expansion was mainly due to a boost for US corn output, which it raised by 8m tons from its July report, to 342 tons. The IGC cautioned, though, that output prospects for that crop in the US were still uncertain after a “less than ideal” growing season.
Due to increased consumption, world grain closing stocks are expected to fall for the third successive season, with the pace of drawdown accelerating, found the review.
“At 598m tons, down by 27m year on year, the global grains carryover at the end of 2019/20 is placed at a four-year low.”
The IGC downgraded global soybean production for 2019-20 by 4m tons from the July report on weakened outlook for the US, where it said the harvested area is likely to contract by 14% from the previous year.
With trade data confirming smaller-than-anticipated shipments to key markets, the Council’s forecast for soybean trade in 2018-19 is reduced by 1m tons to 149m tons, a decline of 3% year on year.
Meanwhile, as the rapeseed market continues to look tight in the EU, Statistics Canada has estimated a year-on-year production drop of 9% for canola to 18.5Mt, below average trade estimates.