IGC reduces global grain production forecasts, maintains positive outlook for global soybean trade

By Jane Byrne contact

- Last updated on GMT

© GettyImages/fotokostic
© GettyImages/fotokostic

Related tags: Wheat, Soybean, Corn, IGC

The International Grains Council (IGC) forecast for world total grains production in 2020/21 has been lowered by 13MT to 2,225MT, mainly on downgrades for wheat in the US, EU, and Russia, and maize in the US.

The Council lowered its 2020/21 estimates for US corn production to 380.8MT, down from 392.5MT in its June outlook. US consumption for 2020/21 was downgraded by 1.3MT owing to a 2MT downgrade to feed usage, but industrial usage was increased to 163.3MT, just below the 166.5MT in 2018/19. 
 
Looking to wheat, the Council’s 2020/21 EU wheat production estimate is down from the 28.4MT estimate in June to 25.6MT. 

Major exporters 2020/21 wheat production has been downgraded to 372.9MT from 379.2MT. Russian wheat production estimates have also been revised down, but at 78MT, the IGC estimate remains above the USDA forecast.

Oilseeds outlook 

The Council increased the 2020/21 major soybean exporter production estimate to 296.1MT, up from 294.5MT in June.

It maintained its Chinese import projections at 96MT, and consumption increased 0.5MT to 113MT.

Further ahead, the Brazilian 2021/22 soybean production estimate has been increased to 130MT, from 128.5MT, maintaining a long term well supplied outlook, noted CRM AgriCommodities in a review of the IGC predictions. 

Minimal US old crop net soybean sales of 365.2KT for 2019/2020 were made last week, up 17% from the previous week, but down 31 % from the prior 4-week average, said CRM.
 
For 2020/2021, net sales of 2.3MT were primarily for China 1.49MT, while weekly exports of 467.2KT were down 19% from the previous week, bringing total exports to 38.807MT, with an estimated 44.9MT total season exports.”

Additional US soybean sales of 132KT for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year were announced yesterday, reported CRM.

The IGC July estimates can be read here​.

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