WASDE: USDA takes cautious approach

By Jane Byrne contact

- Last updated on GMT

© GettyImages/Allexxandar
© GettyImages/Allexxandar

Related tags: Soybean, Maize, Wheat, Pig, China

The mildly bearish June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) contained few surprises with the USDA taking a cautious approach as ever with incremental changes, reports CRM AgriCommodities.

Global soybean supply and demand has been little changed from the May outlook, noted Peter Collier, market analyst, CRM. 

US soybean ending stocks are forecast slightly down to 10.8MT, from 11MT in May as US crush demand is anticipated to increase, continued the analyst.  

On a global scale, soymeal availability in 2020/21 is expected to increase, from 238MT in 2019/20 to 246MT, with soymeal production in Argentina expected to reach 33MT, up from 31.35MT in 2019/20, he noted.  

“Expectations that China will import 2MT more soybeans in 2020/21 to fuel the recovery in the pig herd will be closely watched and signs of a failure to reach this mark would pressure what remains a well-supplied global market,” ​Collier told FeedNavigator. 

Maize outlook 

The June estimates raised global maize production in 2020/21 to 1188.5MT, up 2MT from the May estimate, he said.  

However, this is still well below the forecast provided by AMIS at 1207MT, said Collier.  

Global ending stocks in maize have been trimmed slightly to 337.87MT following a marginal increase in consumption, he said. However, US ending beginning stocks for 2020/21 have been increased as further reductions in 2019/20 ethanol demand are factored in, he added.  

The 2020/21 US consumption outlook for maize remained unchanged with 2020/21 forecasts for US domestic use to bounce back and outstrip 2018/19, which, given the global economic outlook and ongoing pandemic, leaves room for further cuts, commented the market specialist.  

Wheat matters 

The June estimates slightly surprised wheat markets, raising the 2020/21 world wheat production outlook to 773.43MT from 768.49MT, and increasing ending stocks by 6MT, said Collier.  

However, on closer inspection, while Australian production has been revised up 2Mt to 26Mt, overall major exporters production has been trimmed by 2MT, reflecting a tightening of available supply, he said.  

Moreover, the EU-28 wheat production estimate at 141MT is down 2MT and Ukraine wheat production now forecast at 26.5Mt, down 1.5MT from the rather optimistic May estimate, said the analyst.

“Yet with global markets having already factored in these declining production estimates, deeper cuts would have been required to provide meaningful support,”​ Collier said.  

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