Philippines: Pig sector not expected to recover until 2024 due to ASF

Swine feed demand is particularly undermined, and a USDA GAINS report anticipates that feed wheat use in that country will be reduced by 100,000 Mt in marketing year 2021-22.

“Hog feed demand will remain flat throughout 2022 due to the continued damaging effects of ASF on the local hog herd. There have been additional outbreaks in areas around Luzon which were previously the country’s top-producing provinces.”​

The USDA estimates total pork production in the Philippines for the coming year will be at 1.0 million Mt CWE, 5.5% lower than the prior year’s output of 1.059 million Mt CWE.

“The hog sector’s decline, as a major consumer of feed wheat, has dampened wheat demand through MY 2021-22. Industry contacts say that the sector is not expected to fully recover until 2024.”​

Wheat imports into the country during the same period are lowered by 300,000 Mt to 6.2m Mt, following final MY 20-21 imports that reached 6.1m Mt.

Maize production in the Philippines for MY 2021-22 is lifted by 150,000 Mt to 8.15m Mt due to good crop conditions during the first quarter, and minimal effects on the crop from recent typhoons, reads the outlook.

The USDA team also raised MY 2021-22 maize feed and residual consumption by 150,000 Mt to 6.65m Mt, buoyed by an expected 2% increase in poultry feed demand.

“Industry contacts report of a surge in egg production due to some former piggery owners shifting to layer production when their farms were affected by ASF.”​

They maintained the MY21/22 corn import forecast of 500,000 Mt, saying it remains aligned with the expected feed demand.