“In a raft of changes to production estimates, mostly already well known, global [wheat] supplies have, on paper, slightly eased,” said CRM Agri analysts, commenting on the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for December.
Reduced US wheat exports, amid sluggish sales, contributed towards the estimates for US ending stocks moving upwards to 16.28Mt, from the 15.87Mt forecast in the November report.
The USDA raised its production estimates for wheat output in Russia, Australia and Canada.
“Australian wheat production, at 34Mt was expected, an increase from 31.5Mt, with exports assumed to increase and ending stocks eased.
“Estimates for the Canadian wheat crop were marginally increased, but still tight, but the increase does slightly ease stocks.
“Russian wheat production numbers were also raised, up 1Mt with a build-up in stocks.”
While there were a number of changes made to global wheat supply and demand, there were limited changes made to corn in the WASDE report, reported the grain and oilseed market specialists.
Corn production estimates for Ukraine were raised 2Mt to 40Mt, while EU production estimates were also increased, up from 67.85Mt to 70.35Mt.
Chinese corn imports remain at 26Mt, and there was no revision of US export projections.
And the USDA left unchanged its forecast of 2021/22 corn usage for manufacturing ethanol.
In terms of soybean outlook, the USDA made no adjustments to data for the US, Argentina and Brazil, a similar situation for Chinese import estimates.
“But Chinese domestic production was trimmed, alongside ending stocks,” said the analysts.
China’s soybean production is down 2.6Mt to 16.4Mt on lower area.
Largely offsetting China’s reduction is higher sunflower and soybean output for Russia and Ukraine based on harvest results, according to the USDA report.
Canola production is increased for Australia and lowered for Canada based on recent government reports.
In an outlook report is week, the CRM Agri analysts noted that the Australian canola crop has been estimated at a record 5.7Mt by ABARES.
"This additional supply doesn’t offset the Canadian loss but will reduce the burden. Furthermore, the UK and EU area will likely increase, and early production estimates for next season are up over 5% year on year.
"Canadian production too will likely return next season. Harvest-22 remains a long way off, but once Canadian spring planting is underway, and crop development is inspiring confidence, we expect pressure on markets.”