Some 380,000 MT of sunflower oil shipments destined for India from the Black Sea region are waylaid at ports, according to a USDA FAS report.
And new purchases are being suspended for the foreseeable future due to the war.
India is the largest market for Ukraine’s sunflower oil. In 2021, Ukraine exported US$1.9bn worth of that commodity to India. “Disruption of sunflower oil consignments from Ukraine will potentially offer possibilities for increased US origin soybean oil shipments to India,” estimates the USDA FAS team.
With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, export demand for India’s wheat and corn has accelerated, they also noted.
“India’s wheat exports are expected to quicken substantially in the first quarter of marketing year (MY) 2022/2023.”
The authors report seeing a flurry of inquiries from buyers seeking alternatives to Black Sea region shipments.
“India is expecting that a record harvest can supply neighboring countries, as well markets in the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia.
“With Russia’s war on Ukraine, India is likely to sell 3-4 MMT of the wheat in the first quarter of MY 2022/2023 (April-June). Export prospects in the balance for the rest of the year will depend on how long the crisis and restrictions imposed on Russia will continue during the rest of MY 2022/2023.”
Buyers look to Indian corn
Market sources are also reporting a resurgence in export demand for Indian corn, which had been slowing at the beginning of 2022, reads the industry note.
Despite negligible government procurement and stocks of corn, India has a sufficient exportable surplus due to a third consecutive record harvest and relatively weak domestic demand due to the earlier COVID-19 led slowdown in the poultry sector, said the authors.