Conflict wades into USDA estimates for Ukraine's corn and wheat exports, Brazilian corn prospects ‘encouraging’

By Jane Byrne contact

- Last updated on GMT

© GettyImages/Dmitriy Sidor
© GettyImages/Dmitriy Sidor

Related tags: WASDE, Usda

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) released the April WASDE today [April 8]; analysts called the outlook 'conservative'.

Any amendments to previous projections, if at all, were quite limited, found CRM Agri.

US wheat stocks were revised higher in this month’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)​, with stocks up from 17.77Mt to 18.45Mt, due to downwardly revised consumption and export projections.

Sluggish exports were also a theme for EU wheat, with export projections cut from 37.5Mt to 34Mt, resulting in exports being revised higher to 11.36Mt from 9.58Mt, outweighing a slight increase in consumption estimates.

Ukraine wheat export estimates were revised down by just 1Mt to 19Mt, given that its Black Sea ports remain closed since the invasion by Russia in February. Russian wheat exports were revised higher to 33Mt, noted the UK analysts.

Corn

US corn supply and demand estimates were left virtually unchanged from last month, with only minor changes to feed consumption, and no revision of overall stocks, they reported.

"Brazilian full season corn production was increased by 2Mt to 116Mt as the prospects for the second Brazilian corn crop remain encouraging, echoing yesterday’s assessment by Conab," ​Peter Collier, senior analyst, CRM Agri, told us.

Exports out of Ukraine were revised lower to 23Mt, down from the 27.5Mt estimate in March, said the CRM Agri team.

Chinese import projections for corn were trimmed, down 3Mt to 23Mt, resulting in reduced consumption outlooks.

Soybeans

Following what has been a strong export sales campaign recently, the US agency again revised US soybean export estimates slightly higher, to 57.56Mt, with further trims to ending stock projections at 7.07Mt, said the oilseed and grain market experts.

The USDA also trimmed soybean production estimates for Brazil, down to 125Mt, from 127Mt last month. Conab estimates are for a smaller crop.

Estimates for China’s soy imports also fell, down to 91Mt from a previously estimated 94Mt.

Another notable oilseed change this month includes lower sunflower seed crush for Ukraine, leading to lower meal and oil supplies for major markets like India, China, the EU, and Turkey. 

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