COCERAL expects a reduced grain harvest for EU and UK

By Jane Byrne

- Last updated on GMT

© GettyImages/Andrew Linscott
© GettyImages/Andrew Linscott

Related tags COCERAL Wheat barley Corn Soybean Ukraine

In its third forecast for 2022, COCERAL sees the total grain crop for the EU and the UK as coming in at 309.5 million tons, an increase from the 305.6 million tons it forecast in March, but lower than the 312 million tons harvested last year.

Wheat production, excluding durum, is expected to reach 143 million tons, higher than the 141.3 million tons in the previous forecast but slightly down from last year’s 143.9 million tons. “The forecast has particularly improved for Spain due to timely rains.”

COCERAL’s outlook for barley production in 2022 for the EU and UK markets is positive, its forecast of 60 million tons is slightly up on the 59.4 million tons of that crop produced last year.

COCERAL is a European association representing the trade in cereals, rice, feedstuffs, oilseeds, olive oil, oils, fats and agrosupply.

The corn crop for the EU and the UK in 2022, according to that Brussels headquartered organization’s data, is now set to reach 66 million tons, down from the earlier forecast of 67.3 million tons and lower than the output achieve in 2021: 67.2 million tons. 

The total rapeseed crop for those markets is predicted to hit 19.5 million tons - that compares well with the crop trade lobby’s forecast of 19.3 million tons from March and the 18.5 million tons rapeseed harvest from last year.

Crop forecast (grains) - May 2022

Russia may lift Ukraine port blockade

Meanwhile, US corn and wheat futures fell mid-week on reports that Russia may once again allow grain to leave Ukrainian ports, reported Reuters.

Russia is ready to set up a humanitarian corridor for vessels carrying food to leave Ukraine in return for the lifting of some sanctions, as per the Interfax news agency citing a Russian government official. 

Ukraine's Black Sea ports have been blocked since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week, EU Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said about 20 million tons of wheat are struck in Ukraine.

She said the EU executive has proposed helping Ukraine export its wheat and other grains by rail, road, and river to get around the Russian blockade of Black Sea ports.

The EU Commission lead also accused Russia of using food supplies as a weapon. “Russia is now hoarding its own food exports as a form of blackmail — holding back supplies to increase global prices, or trading wheat in exchange for political support. This is using hunger and grain to wield power.”

Together, Russia and Ukraine account for 28% of global wheat exports, 18% of corn, and 30% of barley, according to Rabobank.

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