Agri-commodity market tracking: Little in the way of surprise in June’s WASDE

12-Jun-2023 - Last updated on 10-Feb-2024 at 20:36 GMT

The USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released on Friday, with few unexpected changes, noted a review by AHDB.

However, world wheat ending stocks for the 2023/24 season were raised more than analysts had expected, now at 270.7 Mt, up from the previous estimate of 264.3 Mt.

“This increase is mostly on account of a higher global production forecast, despite higher global consumption expected too,” reported the AHDB team.

The report was generally shrugged off by the market; Chicago soybean futures rose despite a more bearish report, they continued.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised the US supply outlook for soybeans for 2023/24, based on higher beginning stocks. “This comes as demand for old-crop US soybeans fell on increased availability of South American origin soybeans. The Brazilian soybean crop was revised up by 1 Mt, to now be estimated at a record 156 Mt.”

Demand for Brazilian origin is increasing as the crop comes to the global export market. According to the Brazilian National Association of Cereal Exporters (ANEC), Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach 13.11 Mt in June 2023; this is an increase from the 9.95 Mt reached a year earlier, found the AHDB analysis.

Rain expected in US soy growing regions

The spotlight is now on the US weather as the soybean sowing campaign comes to an end.

“Over the next seven days, much of the US Midwest is forecast to have widespread rain. With the majority of soybean producing areas due to receive some rain, this will be ideal for the crop that has been planted in good time.”