WASDE: USDA lowers global corn, soy and wheat production estimates

However, with expectations for demand reduced too, the report had little immediate impact on prices, according to CRM Agri.

August's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)​​ was released on Friday.

Corn​

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut its forecast for this year’s US corn yield by 0.15t/ha to 11.0t/ha, stripping it of record status.

This was a bigger-than-expected reduction of 5.3Mt to 383.8Mt. 

However, the downgrade to the 2023/24 US carryout stocks figure was a more modest 1.5Mt to 55.9Mt, with the USDA factoring in reduced expectations for feed and export demand, reads the CRM Agri outlook. 

Corn stocks will thus still expand by nearly 19Mt next season, around the level investors had expected.

At a global level, the USDA lowered its forecast for both the Russian and EU corn harvests this year.

However, the EU’s dryness reduced corn harvest, downgraded by 3.7Mt to 59.7Mt, would still be above last year’s 52.2Mt result, commented the UK based oilseed and grain market experts.

Soybeans​

The US agency reduced its forecast for US soybean yield by 0.08t/ha to 3.42 t/ha, a little more than the market had expected, demoting it to the third largest on record, and resulting in a bigger-than-forecast crop downgrade of nearly 3.6Mt to 114.5Mt, they said.

However, the downgrade to the US carryout figure for 2023/24 was limited to 1.5Mt, taking it to 6.7Mt, with the soybean export forecast reduced too below 50Mt, reported the UK analysts.

Wheat​

For wheat, the USDA cut its forecast for world production by 3.3Mt, reflecting revisions including cuts to China and the EU, and a 2mt reduction to the Canadian harvest “on worsening drought conditions” in the Prairie provinces.

These downgrades were in part offset by an increased expectation for Ukraine’s output, upgraded by 3.5Mt to 21Mt “on higher area harvested and yields, with the forecast yield the second highest on record.”

Factoring in the enhanced Ukrainian harvest, the forecast for stocks held by major exporters at the close of 2023/24 loosened by 0.5 points to 24.9%, compared with domestic use, although this would still represent the tightest figure in 11 years and is unduly reliant on Ukraine and Russian origin, noted the CRM Agri team.

The estimate for the UK wheat harvest was held at 15.5Mt.

Rapeseed​

The US organization lowered its forecast for Canada’s canola harvest, with export and carryout inventory estimates downgraded as well.

Indeed, the forecast for major exporter inventories, compared with use, fell to 10.8%, signalling the tightest market this century on this metric.