Agri commodity market tracker: Weather risks and geopolitical tensions

There is heightened focus now on wheat production in Argentina after BAGE slashed its forecast for production to 15.4Mt, below the current 16.5Mt estimated by the USDA, reported the CRM Agri analyst team.

Russian wheat exports for October are showing signs of slowing, if this trend continues it will be a supportive factor for European wheat prices, they noted.

The US could continue to find its popularity rising amongst corn importers, including China, where corn futures have begun recovering again from the five-month lows set two weeks ago, reported the grain market specialists. 

“This scenario would be accelerated without a pickup in Ukrainian and European corn exports. For now, the corn price is under pressure due to weak US exports and higher yields.”

Weather risks​

Soybean prices continued to build on last week's gains, rallying to a near six weeks high on rising South American production risks as adverse weather patterns remain in place this week, added the CRM Agri team.

“Weather risks continue to mount in South America as Brazil is forecast to experience ongoing dryness in central and eastern parts of the country."

Europe is also experiencing weather troubles, with central and northern Europe facing plantings delays due to extremely wet weather, and further rains forecast over the next 10 days likely to add to the delays, said the analysts.

FranceAgriMer reported France's wheat plantings at 62%, 10% behind average.

Geopolitical tensions ​

Geopolitical risks remain high as Israel troops prepare to enter Gaza city and missile attacks were seen against Russian ships in Crimea ports, according to the outlook.

Ukrainian export data highlighted grain exports this season down 30% overall compared to the same period last season. “Despite ships being loaded, the grain exports from Odessa remain inconsistent and risks of attacks on vessels high.”