News & Analysis on the Global Animal Feed Industry
Fallout from ASF in China
By Jane Byrne
- Last updated on
Ranking high in most read stories from September was our interview with Rabobank on the impact of ASF on feed demand and pig production in China.
The ASF epidemic will be a multi-year and multi-region issue that brings structural change to global animal protein, said Justin Sherrard, global animal protein strategist, with the Dutch bank.
“The scope of the decline in the Chinese herd numbers is such that it will take years to recover from, but it is also because there is no vaccine. Producers are constantly facing the disease pressure, they are facing a challenge of deciding if they should repopulate, or deciding what is the right process to follow to repopulate, what do they need to do to increase biosecurity to the point where they can be confident that repopulating will allow them to take piglets through to slaughter?”
In fact, it is questionable that China will ever recover, said the analyst.
“The scope is incredible – by the end of this year, 50% of the herd in China will have disappeared – that is a quarter of the world’s pigs."
Breeding companies say their breeding herds are not affected by ASF, but Sherrard reckons the mostly likely route to pig repopulation in China will be through retaining gilts within the herd rather than taking those through to slaughter.
“That is likely why the herd will recover but pork meat production will not necessarily recover.”