There was a lot of interest in a story last month about the likely impact of an ASF outbreak in Germany on EU pig prices.
A UK AHDB report outlined how the spread of African Swine Fever (ASF) into Germany may have less severe consequences for EU pig prices than it would have 18 months ago, given that the sharp rise in Chinese import demand has drawn enough product from the EU market that if German pork is retained within the bloc, the market is unlikely to be swamped.
“Prices are still likely to fall, but probably not to the historic lows we might have seen otherwise. Much of this analysis is dependent on the assumption that Chinese import demand holds, and even increases this year. The pork supply gap is expected to be even larger than in 2019, so this seems likely, but international relations and the current coronavirus situation do bring some uncertainty.”