Global availability of rapeseed set to be tight, weather positive for US soybean production

By Jane Byrne contact

- Last updated on GMT

© GettyImages/SimplyCreativePhotography
© GettyImages/SimplyCreativePhotography

Related tags: Rapeseed, Soybean meal

Rapeseed meal is likely to remain in very short supply in 2021/22, says CRM Agri.

This week, those analysts are looking at the European rapeseed supply and demand and import requirements for the upcoming season.

“Heading into 2021/22, and from a supply perspective, although production estimates have increased in confidence, with a year on year increase in production from 16.16Mt to 16.88Mt, reduced beginning stocks counteract production gains and overall EU-27 supply has tightened,”​ they forecast.

Offsetting a large proportion of the demise in European production has been Ukraine, said the CRM Agr​i team. 

“While production has increased year on year to an estimated 2.9Mt, this lags well behind the 3.46Mt of 2018/19.

“With a proposed import demand of 6Mt for the EU27, and only marginal increases for Ukraine, alongside the previously covered reductions for Canadian canola production, global availability will remain exceptionally tight in 2021/22,”​ said the analysts.   

Soybean production

Overall, production confidence for US soybeans has been increasing and there has been recent rainfall across previously drought impacted regions, noted the oilseed market specialists. 

Weather at the end of August continues to be positive for US soybean production with rainfall arriving across moisture depleted states. Although Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) scores for the US are below average in North and South Dakota, the majority of the US crop production states are above average, according to the outlook.

US soybean export sales have begun to accelerate. Pre-harvest US soybean sales to both China and world commitments last week increased to now average rates of weekly commitments, they said.

Brazilian soybean production reached new records in 2021 and are forecast to increase by a further 7Mt to 144Mt in 2022, reads the report. 

The analysts said that while soybean stocks in the US will likely remain at below average stock levels by the end of 2021/22, and with canola production in Canada impacted by drought, soy meal demand has the potential to increase throughout 2021/22.

The analysts said market attention will soon turn to South America and focus on Brazil where La Nina concerns persist, a significant soil moisture deficit still persists and the planting campaign for both first corn and soy is set to begin in the not too distant future

CRM Agri remains tentatively bearish toward oilseed markets in the medium term.

Russian wheat 

Russian yields continue to create disappointing headlines, they said. 

They noted that 20.5Mha of wheat is now harvested, coming in at 63.2Mt and an average yield of 3.09t/ha, which is down from the 3.11t/ha reported on Tuesday.

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