IGC lowers forecast for world wheat output

By Jane Byrne contact

- Last updated on GMT

© GettyImages/Dan Brownsword
© GettyImages/Dan Brownsword

Related tags: Wheat, Soybean, IGC

Last week saw the IGC amend its projections for global wheat production in 2021-22 to 782m tons, that is 6m tons lower than its July forecast but still an increase of 1.2% from 773m ton in 2020-21.

The International Grains Council (IGC) cited smaller projections for wheat production in Canada, Russia, and the US as the rational for the reduction.

At 782 million tons, the global wheat crop would, however, be record making in terms of volumes.

Global total grains production in 2021/22 is forecast to climb by 3% y/y, to a record 2,283m tons, led by new highs for maize (+75m y/y) and wheat (+8m).  Consumption is expected to grow by 2%, including gains for food (+12m t y/y), feed (+30m) and industrial uses (+7m).

The IGC anticipates world stocks of grains to contract, for a fifth consecutive year, to a seven-season low of 589m tons (-4m y/y), with y/y falls for wheat, barley and millet/triticale only partly offset by slightly larger inventories of maize and rye.

At 415m tons (-12m y/y), the Council sees global grains trade (Jul/Jun) slipping, the first decline in three years, including smaller shipments of wheat (-1m), maize (-10m) and barley (-2m), but it forecasts an increase for sorghum (+1m).

Soybean production and trade outlook

Tied to smaller than anticipated shipments from South American origins to Asia, the IGC forecast for soybean trade output in 2020/21 (Oct/Sep) is cut further, to 166m tons, a drop of 3% year-on-year (y/y).

“Reduced hog sector profitability contains Chinese demand, with purchases by smaller buyers impacted by elevated prices and freight costs.”

Global soybean production in 2021/22 is predicted to rise by 5% y/y, to a high of 380m tons, on sizeable crops in the three majors, while an uptick in consumption is anticipated on firmer demand from China.  “World inventories are expected to increase, but US supplies are set to remain tight given outlooks for high local use and exports. Trade is seen up by 3% y/y on Asian demand.”

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