WASDE: Global soybean ending stocks forecast above five-year average

By Jane Byrne

- Last updated on GMT

Photo credit: GettyImages/JJ Gouin
Photo credit: GettyImages/JJ Gouin

Related tags WASDE Soybean Brazil

The USDA’s October WASDE report, released yesterday, revised global soybean ending stocks upwards, by 1.6Mt, to 100.52Mt for 2022/2023.

This puts global soybean ending stocks 8.14Mt higsult of a 1.6Mt increase in Brazilian ending stocks (31.31Mt for 2022/2023), while US ending stock estimates were unchanged from last month’s forecast and Argentina’s 2022/2023 ending stocks were revised lower.” 

Rapeseed production for the EU was increased 1Mt to 19.2Mt on higher production for France, Germany, and Poland. Partly offsetting that was a 0.5Mt reduction to 19.5Mt for Canada’s canola crop due to lower yield.

In terms of production, the analysts noted that global soybean production was forecast 1.22Mt higher at 390.99Mt in October relative to the USDA’s September forecast, largely due to a 3Mt upward revision to Brazilian production for 2022/2023, to 152Mt. 

Corn challenges

It is the opposite story in corn.

Global ending stocks are now projected at 301.19Mt, which is a decline of 3.34Mt from last month’s estimate, lower than 5.83Mt from the previous year’s level and 12.51Mt below its five-year average. Ending stocks in both the US and China were revised downwards in the latest WASDE​.

Looking to global corn production, and the USDA predicts that will decline by 3.84Mt, with output reaching 1168.7Mt. The USDA cited weaker US and EU output for 2022/2023 as the reason.

Wheat woes

Turning to wheat, global ending stocks are seen reaching 267.54Mt for 2022/2023, which is down 1.03Mt from last month’s forecast, and lower by 8.47Mt from last year’s levels, said the CRM Agri team. Those ending stocks are also down a massive 17.85Mt from their five-year average.

Global wheat production was revised lower as well, by 2.22Mt, to 781.7Mt in the October update compared to September. "This puts wheat production 16.48Mt below its five-year average and mainly reflects weaker output from the US."

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