Black Sea conflict: ‘Potential for easier exports from Ukraine is dampening market sentiment’

By Jane Byrne

- Last updated on GMT

© GettyImages/Marco_de_Benedictis
© GettyImages/Marco_de_Benedictis

Related tags Rapeseed Black Sea AHDB Australia Wheat

European wheat futures lacked direction as the Chicago futures markets were closed for Labor Day in the US, according to a AHDB review.

“The US holiday, along with talks between the Presidents of Russia and Turkey to discuss Black Sea exports, meant prices drifted lower. There’s been no breakthrough in the talks, but the potential for easier exports from Ukraine is dampening market sentiment.”

Rain has fallen in Argentina over recent days, according to the Rosario Grains Exchange. “Following earlier dry weather, the rain will help stabilize wheat crops and could mean an early start to maize (corn) planting,” wrote ADHB senior analyst, Helen Plant.

Australian wheat output estimates trimmed

The AHDB report​ also outlined how Australia’s wheat crop will be smaller than forecast in June, due to a lack of rainfall, with it citing data from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).

“And there is more dry weather ahead,” said Plant.

After several years of particularly high rainfall, due to the La Niña weather event, drier conditions have returned to key cropping regions, said the analyst. “Queensland, northern New South Wales, and the northern and eastern cropping regions of Western Australia all recorded below-average rainfall this winter (June–August).”

Oilseed markets

Meanwhile, Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-23) fell €8.25/t to €465.25/t on Monday, reported Plant.

Evaluating that development, CRM Agri oilseed and grain market specialists noted that oil prices renewed their rally after Russia and Saudi Arabia, the world’s top two exporters, announced extensions to supply cutbacks totaling 1.3M barrels per day.

“Brent crude gained 2% to rise above US$90/barrel for the first time since November last year. It is on track on a spot basis for an eighth successive positive session, a run during which it has gained 9%. However, rapeseed, which as a major biodiesel feedstock is typically heavily influenced by oil markets, remained unimpressed. The Paris November-23 contract stood down 2% in late deals, after the EU reported its biggest week of rapeseed imports since June, of 134Kt. Almost all came from Ukraine, which has rich supplies to export, after a record harvest of 4Mt.”

Elsewhere in the oilseeds complex, Chicago soybean futures for November-23 dipped by 0.5% as forecasts showing wetter and cooler weather for the US Midwest eased concerns over US crop prospects, more than offsetting support from a further US export sale, commented the CRM Agri analysts.

And Tuesday this week saw the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) announce ​the sale of 251Kt of US soybeans to “unknown” import destinations.

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