Anticipated decline in EU and UK wheat output, rapeseed crop set to be marginally higher

Wheat production, excluding durum, is forecast at 137.9m tons, down from last year’s 145.7m tons. The expected decrease is mainly due to a significant acreage reduction in France, Germany, Denmark and in the UK, in particular, due to abundant rains during the planting season last fall.

France, Denmark and the UK are also forecast to see lower yields in wheat production than last year, according to the forecast.

EU barley production in 2020 is forecast at 60.8m tons, down from 62.2m tons last year, finds the COCERAL report. This is mainly due to an expected return to typical winter barley yields from last year’s exceptionally good levels in France and the UK, which will not be completely offset by higher spring barley areas and yields, noted the team.

The EU’s 2020 corn crop is expected to reach 65m tons – up from last year’s 61m tons. Corn acreage is seen benefiting from the wet planting campaign for winter grains, expected to expand to 9m hectares versus 8.5m ha in 2019. The most notable year-on-year increases in production are expected in France, Germany and Poland, said the analysts.

Rapeseed review ​

The 2020 rapeseed production forecast for the EU stands at 17.1m tons, which is only marginally higher than last year’s disappointing level of 16.7m tons, said COCERAL.

“France and Romania are expected to see a further decrease in acreage, whereas Germany should see a slight recovery from the very low level in 2019. EU-wide yields are seen as only slightly better than last year, with improvements expected for Germany, France, and Romania, but lower levels for the UK and Denmark.”​

COCERAL is the European association representing the trade in cereals, rice, feedstuffs, oilseeds, olive oil, oils and fats and agrosupply.

The detailed COCERAL oilseeds and grain forecast datasheets can be found here​​.